Sanjay Mehta built his career in Silicon Valley over two decades. He raised capital, hired thousands, and watched his company grow into a multinational operation. Now, at 48, he has a message for young Indians eyeing the United States as their ticket to success: do not come.
"If I were 25 again, I would not have moved to the US," Mehta told reporters at a technology conference in San Francisco last week. "The math simply does not work anymore for people like us."
Mehta, who left Mumbai in 2003 with a computer science degree and a job offer from a Bay Area startup, is not alone in his assessment. A growing chorus of Indian-American professionals is publicly questioning whether the American dream still holds for their compatriots. For Indian audiences watching from home, his remarks land at a complicated moment: the US remains a top destination for Indian migrants, yet the path to staying there permanently has become harder than ever.
The Green Card Cliff
The core of Mehta's frustration centres on the permanent residency system. Indian nationals face the longest backlog of any nationality, with wait times for employment-based green cards now stretching beyond 20 years under current immigration quotas. The US caps each country at just 7 percent of annual green card allocations, regardless of population or demand.
For a 25-year-old Indian software engineer landing a job in Seattle today, realistic legal pathways to permanent residence could consume most of their productive career. During that wait, they cannot freely change employers without risking their application. They cannot start a company on the side without legal exposure. Their spouse may face work authorisation delays. Their children could age out of dependent status before a decision arrives.
"You spend your best years in limbo," Mehta said. "I did. And I look at my friends who stayed in Bengaluru or Hyderabad, who built companies and raised families without that sword over their heads. Some of them are further ahead than me."
H-1B: The Visa That Defines a Generation
Most Indian professionals enter the US on H-1B temporary work visas, a programme that has become synonymous with the Indian tech diaspora. Each year, the US receives over 400,000 applications for approximately 65,000 available slots. Indian applicants win the majority of those visas, yet the cap means even well-qualified candidates often apply multiple years before winning selection.
The annual lottery has become a ritual of anxiety for Indian engineers in cities from Chennai to Coimbatore, where coaching centres prepare candidates for the application cycle. Those who win still face a maximum six-year stay on the visa, with the green card queue extending far beyond that window.
The Trump administration hasSignificantly increased scrutiny of H-1B applications, with Requests for Evidence spiking in recent years. Employers face longer processing times and more documentation demands. For Indian workers, the programme that once represented a reliable stepping stone now feels increasingly fragile.
What Professionals Are Doing Instead
Mehta points to a shift he has observed among younger Indian talent. Rather than queuing for US approval, many now target Canada, Germany, Singapore, and Australia, where immigration pathways are clearer and timelines shorter. Canada, in particular, has become a favoured destination: the country processed over 100,000 permanent resident applications from Indian nationals last year alone.
"You can get a work permit in Canada in six months. You can become a citizen in three years," Mehta noted. "In the US, you might still be waiting for a lottery number in three years."
Back home in India, the conversation is shifting too. Startups in Bengaluru, Gurgaon, and Pune now offer compensation packages that rival or exceed US salaries for comparable roles, particularly in artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and semiconductor design. The talent arbitrage that once made American pay irresistible has narrowed considerably.
The Cost of Staying
For those who do make the move, the financial calculus has changed. US cities where tech jobs cluster, particularly the Bay Area, Seattle, and New York, command high salaries but also high costs. Median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco now exceeds $3,000 per month. Childcare in suburban districts can run $2,000 monthly per child. Healthcare premiums, even with employer sponsorship, consume a meaningful portion of take-home pay.
Indian immigrants who arrived in the early 2000s often benefited from lower costs and a stronger rupee-dollar gap. The economics that made American earnings transformative for families back in Kerala or Andhra Pradesh have weakened as Indian wages rose and dollar-denominated expenses in the US grew.
"My parents still think I made it," Mehta said with a wry smile. "They tell relatives I work in California, that I am successful. But when I run the numbers, I wonder what I am actually building here versus what I could have built there."
What This Means for Indian Families
The implications extend beyond individual career choices. India sends more students to the US than any other country, with enrollment exceeding 200,000 last academic year. Those students and their families invest heavily in US education, often taking loans or selling property to fund tuition. Many arrive hoping the degree will lead to a job, a visa, and eventually a life in America.
That pipeline now faces new friction. US universities have reported declining Indian graduate applications in recent cycles, a trend attributed partly to visa uncertainty and partly to improved domestic options. Companies that once recruited Indian graduates aggressively now face pressure to justify work visa sponsorship, pushing some to hire domestically or offshore.
For families still committed to the US pathway, the advice from veterans like Mehta is stark: enter with clear eyes. Understand the timeline. Have a backup plan. Do not assume the American job will translate into an American life.
"I am not saying America is bad," Mehta clarified. "I am saying the deal has changed. And if nobody tells young people that, they end up like me, realising too late that the path they were promised does not exist."
What Comes Next
Congress has debated immigration reform for years without passing significant changes to the employment-based visa system. Multiple bipartisan bills have failed, largely because immigration remains a politically toxic topic in an election year. The per-country cap remains in place, preserving the decades-long backlog for Indian nationals.
Some immigration attorneys are watching a Supreme Court case involving the H-1B programme, which could affect how visas are distributed in future lotteries. Others are advising clients to explore alternative pathways, including the O-1 extraordinary ability visa or investment-based options.
For now, the queue moves slowly. Indian professionals continue to apply, continue to wait, and continue to make the calculation Mehta described. The question for readers watching from India is whether the calculation still works in their favour. Mehta has made his view clear. The next move belongs to those still deciding.
