WMO Confirms 80% El Nino Risk for India — Monsoon Disruption Expected This Summer

India faces an 80 percent probability of El Nino weather patterns emerging between June and August, the World Meteorological Organisation warned on Friday, threatening the June-September monsoon season that two-thirds of the country depends on for farming and drinking water.

The WMO's latest El Nino Southern Oscillation update placed the chance of an El Nino event developing at 80 percent — a significant increase from the 55 percent probability projected just three months ago. Scientists at the Geneva-based agency said the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific had crossed the threshold needed to trigger the climate phenomenon.

The timing matters enormously for South Asia. A mature El Nino typically reduces rainfall across the Indian subcontinent during the second half of the monsoon season, from August onward. The last major El Nino struck in 2015-16, causing drought that slashed India's grain output and drove up food prices.

What El Nino Means for India's Weather

El Nino occurs when warm water displaces cold water off South America's Pacific coast, shifting atmospheric circulation and disrupting rainfall patterns globally. For India, the consequences translate into drier conditions precisely when the monsoon should be delivering moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

The India Meteorological Department has already forecast below-normal rainfall for June, the month when the monsoon traditionally advances from Kerala northward across the country. Forecasters now worry that an El Nino formation could extend the deficit deep into the season.

In Delhi, where summer temperatures have already touched 45 degrees Celsius, water authorities are preparing for reduced groundwater recharge. The Delhi Jal Board has instructed reservoir operators to maximise storage before the anticipated shift in rainfall patterns.

Agriculture Braces for Potential Losses

The agriculture sector, which contributes nearly 18 percent to India's GDP and employs half the workforce, faces the greatest exposure. Rice, cotton, soybean, and pulses — crops that depend on July and August rains for planting and growth — could suffer if El Nino takes hold.

Farmers in Punjab and Haryana, who are currently harvesting wheat, are already anxious about the outlook for the next planting cycle beginning in June. The state agricultural universities have issued advisories urging farmers to consider drought-resistant seed varieties if forecasts deteriorate further.

State-Level Contingency Plans

Several state governments have activated drought monitoring committees as a precaution. Maharashtra's revenue department held a meeting on Thursday to review grain stock levels and water reservoir capacity across the drought-prone Marathwada region.

Rajasthan, which receives limited monsoon rain anyway, is preparing for the possibility that El Nino could intensify existing water stress in districts already reporting below-average reservoir levels.

Water Scarcity Looms for Cities

Urban centres that depend on monsoon-fed rivers and reservoirs are watching closely. Chennai, which faced a crippling water crisis in 2019 when reservoirs nearly emptied, has begun restricting non-essential water use as a precautionary measure. The Tamil Nadu Water Resources Department has asked municipalities to identify alternative water sources and repair aging distribution networks before shortages deepen.

Bengaluru, home to 13 million people, sources much of its drinking water from the Cauvery River, which swells during the monsoon. City authorities have begun releasing water from KRS Dam to maintain buffer stocks, anticipating that El Nino could reduce the river's seasonal flow.

Power Grid Faces Dual Pressure

Electricity demand across northern India typically peaks during the pre-monsoon period as households run air conditioners and agricultural pumps draw heavily from the grid. If El Nino reduces cloud cover and prolongs the heatwave conditions, power consumption could remain elevated even as the monsoon brings relief in normal years.

The Central Electricity Authority has warned that coal stocks at power plants in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand should be monitored closely. Hydroelectric generation, which accounts for roughly 12 percent of India's installed capacity, could also dip if El Nino curtails rainfall in catchment areas.

Government Monitoring and International Response

The WMO's warning has been shared with the Ministry of Earth Sciences, which coordinates India's climate forecasting. IMD scientists are working with international partners to refine their models as sea surface temperature data continues to accumulate.

India's NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) has issued no formal alert yet but is understood to be reviewing contingency protocols for drought, heatwaves, and water shortages. The agency typically escalates preparedness measures when probabilistic forecasts cross the 70 percent threshold.

International humanitarian organisations have begun preliminary assessments of potential food security impacts across South Asia, anticipating that El Nino effects could extend beyond India to affect Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and parts of Indonesia.

What Comes Next

Forecasters will know more by mid-July. If sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region — the key El Nino monitoring zone — continue warming, the WMO is expected to formally declare an El Nino event. That announcement would trigger immediate contingency actions across India's agricultural, water, and power sectors.

For now, the 80 percent probability stands as a warning rather than a certainty. But with the monsoon season just weeks away, policymakers in New Delhi and state capitals are running out of time to prepare for a scenario they can no longer ignore.